When the Roland Garros draw came out on Thursday, the biggest question everyone had was
where 14-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal would fall and if he would play a top seed.
And guess what? It happened and it was a very familiar foe. The king of clay who most likely is
going to be playing his final Roland Garros this year drew former US Open finalist and the No. 4
player in the world Alexander Zverev in the opening round, which will be a Sunday match.
After his injuries, Nadal is barely even in the ATP rankings right now but is using a protected
ranking to get into tournaments. Unfortunately, he is still getting unseeded in the tournaments he
is playing meaning that it is luck of the draw who he gets. Yes, he could even play Novak
Djokovic in the first round of majors. Instead, he drew Zverev, the same player who was going
toe-to-toe with a more in-form Rafa in the 2022 Roland Garros semifinals and had to pull out at
the end of the second set in that match. Zverev went into a lengthy rehab and now he is back.
Things have come full circle and Zverev is rolling, having just won the Italian Open. Meanwhile
it is Nadal who is injured and is trying just to have one more run in his last Roland Garros. The
last two years have been trying for Nadal and just when everybody expects him to return to the
greatness he showed for two decades, he becomes living proof that Father Time is undefeated.
I just do not see Nadal winning this match on Sunday. I just think Zverev is in better shape and
Nadal basically just doesn’t have the tools anymore to defeat players like Zverev. Also, the best
three out of five used to be Nadal’s calling card. Now it is a hindrance. The hardest thing to do in
sports for almost 20 years was defeat Nadal in best of five at Roland Garros. I think Zverev is
going to show Sunday that he is a thing of the past. There has also been talk through the vine on
social media that Nadal may not retire after this year. I will not speculate on that, but I am going
to assume this is his final Roland Garros and if he loses it is going to be a surreal moment for the
fans. I don’t think he is greatest to ever play tennis, but he is the most dominant player ever on
clay male or female, though there is big fan of his that looks like is going to give him a run for
his money. We should all celebrate his greatness, no matter who you are a fan of.
The other nostalgic opening round matchup pits two three-time grand slam winners in Andy
Murray and Stan Wawrinka. This is the match I am calling the Big 3 party crasher match because
in the day of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal these two had some magical moments on the biggest
stages in tennis. Murray, in addition to two Olympic gold medals in singles, took the title at the
US Open in 2012 and won two Wimbledon’s while Stan Wawrinka won trophies at the Aussie
Open, US Open and Roland Garros.
However, this is 2024 and both players are winding down their careers. Most likely with Murray
Wimbledon will be his last tournament though that is not set in stone. Murray run the last three
or four years has been reminiscent of Jimmy Connors at age 39 when it seemed like he could
barely walk yet still trying to win tennis match. I know a lot of Murray fans would love to see
him make one more run in a major. I just don’t think it is going to be Roland Garros.
Even though Wawrinka in some ways has had a greater fall down the rankings in recent years, he
is probably the favorite in his match. The most important thing though in watching this match I
will take from it is how great these two players were and how many more majors they would
have won if they maybe played in the late 90s early 2000s before these three game changers. I
am for sure going to watch this match and remember how things were during that era of tennis.
JUST HOW BIG OF A FAVORITE IS IGA SWIATEK TO WIN
THIS ROLAND GARROS?
There are for sure two different storylines heading into Roland Garros when talking about both
the men’s and women’s draws. On the men’s side, it is probably the most wide open it has been
since Gaston Gaudio won the title in 2004 (My surprise prediction coming up later in the article).
On the women’s side, the favorite is without a doubt the woman who is known simply by her
first name, Iga.
Iga Swiatek is the new queen of clay and Roland Garros is her new castle. Since winning in the
fall/covid 2020 version of Roland Garros, she has won three of the last four including the last
two. This year, she may be a bigger favorite than she was in any of those others. Swiatek comes
in having won the two biggest warmups to Roland Garros, Madrid and Rome, which is a huge
feat considering Madrid favors players who prefer hard courts like Aryna Sabalenka.
When Swiatek won in the three sets in a classic over Sabalenka in Madrid, that made me say Iga
was going to win Roland Garros and it is not going to be close. Swiatek proved that point two
weeks later with a 6-2, 6-3 triumph in Rome in what are similar conditions to Roland Garros. It
was that Madrid victory by Swiatek that made me realize it was going to take a superhuman
effort at Roland Garros to beat her.
Of course, there was the Australian Open this year where she was beaten by Danielle Collins and
looking at the draw they could play in the quarterfinals. Difference here, this is Iga’s house and
even I think Collins would push Iga, this would take monumental effort to dethrone Iga. Roland
Garros is her house, and it looks possible she could get into Rafa numbers at RG when things are
all said and done.
There are a few contenders and that would include Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Collins just to
name a few. Someone else winning can happen, but it just doesn’t look like it can feasibly occur.
Iga is just on a totally different planet on this surface and her game fits perfectly to the dirt.
There is a possibility of a Swiatek-Naomi Osaka matchup in the second round (Which I do not
think will happen) and then Collins in the quarters, but I don’t think draws matter to Swiatek.
She is on her turf and that is all that is going to matter for the next two weeks.
WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS
QUARTERFINALS
Swiatek vs Collins
Haddad Maia vs Jabeur
Paolini vs Rybakina
M. Andreeva vs Sabalenka
SEMIFINALS
Swiatek vs Jabeur
Rybakina vs Sabalenka
FINAL
Swiatek vs Sabalenka
Champion
Iga Swiatek
MEN’S TOURNAMENT VERY HARD TO FORECAST DUE TO
INJURIES, UNCERTAINTIES WITH TOP PLAYERS
I have already heard some comments on social media about me picking Casper Ruud to win
Roland Garros. This pick was not a ringing endorsement of Ruud, but instead an admission that I
think someone other than Djokovic, Alcaraz or Sinner is going to be holding the Coupe de
Mousquetaire two Sundays from now.
I will say if Alcaraz or Sinner is 100 percent or even close to it, I think one of them wins the
tournament. I just do not believe either one of those is going to be healthy enough to be a factor
in this tournament. So, you might be saying what about Djokovic? I am not sold on his current
form, plus I don’t like that possible match with Nicolas Musetti in the third round and that is
where I think Djokovic will fall. Honestly, all three of those guys may surprise me and reach the
semifinals, I just do not see it happening. I think father time has caught up with Nadal and I think
he is making a trek toward Djokovic.
Now since we have eliminated those three, who wins this tournament? I think it is a toss-up. One
of my favorites coming in was Taylor Fritz, then I saw he was bracketed with Ruud in the Round
of 16. I really believed that could have been a final this year. I went with Ruud because of his
experience on clay. A quarterfinal in my bracket included Danil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev.
This is another match that could have been a final and logic says pick Zverev, but I like how
Medvedev is playing on clay as well and in just about a flip of a coin I went with Medvedev.
I think the darkhorse in this tournament and a player I have in the final is No. 16 seed Nicolas
Jarry. The Chilean standout has been knocking on the door, even making the final in Rome
losing to Zverev. I think on clay he is one of the best players in the world right now and honestly
I expect him to be in the top 10 very soon, maybe before this summer is over with. There has
been a little controversy with him and ESPN/NBC/BBC tennis analyst John McEnroe over him
not really being aware of Jarry. He might be calling his final at Roland Garros for NBC which
looks like it will be NBC’s last Roland Garros as its contract is up. (More on TV coverage in a
second), Don’t let anyone fool with Jarry has a big game and it is good enough to win Roland
Garros.
We will close this segment by answering why I picked Ruud to win? Of course, the question
marks surrounding the big guns, but also the fact Ruud has been in the last two Roland Garros
finals, and he really is one of the very best players in the world on clay. I even expect him to skip
Wimbledon this year and focus on the Paris Olympics, which are also at Roland Garros. He
totally loves clay. I think of the other players besides Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner, Ruud is the
best player on this surface. He did have a disappointing lead-in, but he always steps up in the
slams. I think if he is ever going to win Roland Garros this is the year to do it. I know this is a
longshot pick, but I do not expect this tournament to be normal. I think it is going to be very
chaotic. If I had to choose someone, I would go with Ruud by not with 100 percent confidence.
Roland Garros Men’s Predictions
Quarterfinals
Paul vs Ruud
Zverev vs Medvedev
Tsitsipas vs Felix
Tabilo vs Jarry
Semifinals
Ruud vs Medvedev
Tsitsipas vs Jarry
Final
Ruud vs Jarry
Winner
Casper Ruud
IS THIS NBC’S LAST ROLAND GARROS?
Tennis on broadcast television was a sports staple in the 80s and 90s. One of the leaders was
NBC, who had iconic coverage of Wimbledon for over 40 years. However, in 2011, NBC
broadcasted Wimbledon for the last time and the American coverage moved to ESPN, a cable
network. This began the trend of moving major sporting events to cable in the United States.
After NBC lost Wimbledon, it expanded its Roland Garros coverage. I think one reason NBC did
that was because of a premium cable channel called the Tennis Channel having the cable rights
to the tournament now and wanted to give viewers a chance to see the tournament. However, it
looks like those days are gone.
As of this weekend, NBC had not renewed its contract with Roland Garros, and it really looks
like they are not going to. This leaves in doubt where Roland Garros is going to be shown in
2025 but from what things appear, Tennis Channel, a channel that has minimal distribution, is
going to be the full-time home for Roland Garros. Now, I do know that Tennis Channel is
working on offering the channel without a cable subscription, but still, it doesn’t make a lot of
sense to me.
Even though we are living in the days of streaming, when tennis is on the networks people
watch. ESPN, who is already broadcasting some coverage of the early round on Labor Day
weekend on ABC, announced this week that the men’s final of the US Open is going to the
broadcast network and will be the first US Open final telecast on a broadcast channel since the
honestly forgettable Cilic-Nishikori final was on CBS in 2014 when CBS bowed out of tennis.
The ratings are a lot better when they are on channels like NBC. In America, the NFL is king,
and tennis just can’t compete with that. The US Open in America has always had its final the
opening Sunday of the NFL. When tennis can get as much exposure as possible it is a plus. It is
the same way when the Australian Open is on in January during the NFL playoffs.
So, where does this put NBC and Roland Garros next year? I think if NBC was going to renew
with Roland Garros, they would have already done it. The next and most logical option is ESPN.
It would complete the four grand slams for them and make tennis viewing a lot easier than it is
during this NBC/Tennis Channel/Peacock mess, but I really do not believe ESPN wants this
tournament. I do not think they want to take off shows like First Take and Get Up for four weeks
in a two-month span as they must do that with Wimbledon. I also don’t think ESPN wants to cut
into the NCAA Baseball and Softball tournaments, which international readers probably think is
ridiculous, but that does get ratings in the US. College sports are huge in America. I do not
expect ESPN to bid.
I think Tennis Channel is going to be the obvious choice. I personally think it is a mistake, but it
sounds like they are the only ones who want it. Leaving NBC isn’t all bad. Over the last five
years, NBC has been outsourcing a lot of its coverage to its stream service Peacock. I will be
getting it for the Olympics this summer, but I am not paying almost six bucks to watch three-
night sessions. NBCs coverage was great when Ted Robinson was the lead play-by-play guy, but
in recent years they have used substitutes from other sports whose lack of knowledge truly
showed. Tennis Channel will give full attention to the tournament and probably utilize its T2
network which you can find on streaming outlets.
This does look like the swan song for NBC and though there are great memories on the channel
from this tournament, it looks like an era is over.
