By Anthony Hirsch
Since 2005, only four different players have won a title at the prestigious Roland Garros event. Two of those champions only won it once. Rafael Nadal has had a dominance at this event that allowed very few to have a chance to win a grand slam title in France. But this time, coming into Roland Garros, it feels a bit different.
Rafael Nadal has a 7-4 record on the ATP season so far, after coming back from a long-delayed injury period throughout 2023. In the three clay events that he has played, he has lost in straight sets to players who have a win rate on clay that’s below 48%. It feels like a different time for Nadal than ever before as we enter this Slam. He has had struggles throughout the clay season before and then gone on to win the Roland Garros title (such as arguably 2019 and 2022). But when you look at the big picture, such as his age and his current form- a brutal loss to Hubert Hurkacz in Rome included- it doesn’t look great for Rafa.
Novak Djokovic, another key player at this event for the last two decades, is also coming in having struggled far more than he has in a long time. He has contested five events so far, and amazingly he has not reached a single final thus far. This is after his 2023 season where he reached the final of every single event that he played, starting from late May. This was the dominance we were used to. Along with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, they have of course allowed very few players to win any Major titles in the last two decades. However, there have been a handful of worrying losses for Djokovic, including against world #44 Tomas Machac, world #32 Alejandro Tabilo, and world #123 Luca Nardi. It also feels like an increasingly worrying time for Djokovic, especially after splitting up with his long-time coach Goran Ivanisevic, with whom he has won 12 major singles titles.
Other potential favorites for the event who have been dealing with struggles are youngsters Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. These two have taken the tennis world by storm in the last couple of years and arguably have shown that if healthy, these two will win many, many more slams and big titles for years to come. Their issue now is that they are dealing with some health concerns For Carlos Alcaraz, it is a right arm injury that he injured right before the Monte-Carlo event began. He was forced to withdraw from the Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome events. He lost in the quarterfinals of Madrid to eventual champion Andrey Rublev was clearly not playing at 100% there either. Sinner, on the other hand is dealing with a hip injury that began at the Madrid event, where he had to withdraw before beginning his quarterfinal match then also skipped out on the Rome event. He is looking good in the practice videos, and with him saying he’d need to feel at 100% to play the event, it is a good sign that he seems ready to go. But if you want to read up more on Sinner’s injury and his chances at the event, you can do so here: https://qualityshottennis.com/after-missing-rome-what-are-jannik-sinners-chances-going-into-roland-garros/
All of this said, there are major concerns around most if not all these major favorites of the event. There are of course 124 other players in the draw who I have not yet talked about, all of whom have a chance at the title. This is the fun of tennis and sport overall- the idea that it starts out with an equal playing field where everyone has a chance. Among these players are Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. All four of these players have seen incredible success throughout this clay season. Casper Ruud has won the Barcelona title, beating Tsitsipas in the final- who he also faced in the Monte-Carlo final, a title which Stefanos picked up. Zverev has just won the Rome title, his first big title following his severe ankle injury a couple of years ago at Roland Garros. And Rublev of course won his second Masters 1000 title in Madrid, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final on that occasion. It has been an unexpected and surprising clay court season thus far to say the least, with many great clay courters making their mark. None of these champions however being the top guys most of us expected, such as Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic. And other players who had success in last year’s clay court swing such as Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune have also struggled. Ultimately, it leaves this event with a feeling of unpredictability.
What do I ultimately make of this situation and how will it play out in this event? Players such as Ruud and Tsitsipas, who began this clay swing with their final in Monte-Carlo, should think of this as their chance. Alcaraz and Sinner are both potentially dealing with injury concerns. They may still somehow also be at a time where they are not quite at their peak yet- for Sinner, particularly on this surface. Djokovic and Nadal both are playing past their primes and have been struggling in big ways recently. Both all-time greats lost in the first few rounds of Rome, an event they dominated together nonstop.
However, this is not my conclusion. The ultimate statement I would make is this: great players often find a way. This is not always the case, but often it is, and it has been on the men’s side almost nonstop in these Majors for the last 20 years. A little bit of unpredictability is great to make new stars for the game, shake things up, and give a spotlight to all the great players that exist on the tour outside of the few top names I’ve mentioned already. But if I have learned anything is that with players like Nadal and Djokovic, and now Sinner and Alcaraz is that these guys find a way. I expect them to all find a top level playing for one of the sport’s most prestigious trophies. And if I was to make a bettor’s prediction, I would say that one of these names will leave Court Phillipe-Chatrier on June 9 with a trophy in their hands. These players’ capabilities of finding success through and after their different struggles is very commendable- and they will show up for the sport’s biggest events. But everybody in the draw has a chance, and the result is yet to be decided for each player holding a racquet here, playing in this dirt. We see that now more than ever, as worries loom over the two names that have dominated this event for years: Nadal and Djokovic. They also loom over two names that may or may not dominate for years to come: Sinner and Alcaraz. I expect these to be the players to find the title this year, but everybody is in it with a shot. This much is clear. This fact of everyone having a chance is also part of what makes it worth it to step onto the court at all and play this tiny-margin sport. A lot of excitement is in the air to see who will conquer it the best in these next couple of weeks.
