By Anthony Hirsch
It has been a long Summer in this sport moving from clay courts to grass, back to clay and now to hard as we move into the final Slam of the year. The US Open has arrived, and there are a lot of interesting stories on the men’s side coming in. We have just had a massive controversy with the current scandal surrounding Jannik Sinner and his being allowed to continue to play, despite positive tests which he had earlier this year for the steroid Clostebol. Regardless of what you think of the case, it is going to be a heavy distraction for Jannik, and a big talking point for the fans whenever any conversation around Jannik comes about.
Other big stories include Novak Djokovic, who has of course just taken the gold medal at the Olympics for the first time in his illustrious career. It will be interesting to see if he can ride that wave of momentum into New York. My questions for Novak would be of motivation for him, but I believe they will still be high for the grand slam events. Then of course there is Carlos Alcaraz, who has won the last two majors. Carlos also played a fantastic tournament at the Olympics. It was definitely a heartbreaker in the final though, and he had a very uncharacteristic match at the Cincinnati Open, where he lost his first match to Gael Monfils. This was a tournament where he was of course trying to defend finals points. Other players in the draw include Daniil Medvedev, who reached last year’s final playing extremely high-quality tennis. He also has reached the final of five of the last seven grand slam tournaments that have been played on hard courts, the only exclusions occurring between September 2022 and January 2023. Other key players include Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev, who respectively won the Madrid Open and Italian Open this season.
Now talking about the draw in front of us, the top half is stacked. Sinner, Alcaraz, and Medvedev are all in the top half. Meanwhile Djokovic, Rublev, and Zverev sit in the bottom half, along with notable names like Dimitrov, Rune, and Ruud. Also sitting in that bottom half in the very bottom section of the draw along with Djokovic are Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe. These are two Americans who are both defending points from a good run at this tournament last year. These two met in the quarterfinals in fact, which Shelton won, and we could see a rematch of that encounter as early as the third round. They could potentially face each other to see who will take on Djokovic. This is an unfortunate draw for both men, who have to feel like they have to have the tournament of their career to defend points here. Tiafoe of course did just have a great run in Cincy though, and Shelton did not perform poorly there either, taking Zverev to the brink.
Some other notable moments in the draw are for Rublev, as he could face danger Jiri Lehecka in the third round, who has just beaten Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati and had a very notable performance against Rublev to beat him easily in Indian Wells. There could be a Next Gen meeting between Holger Rune, Cincinnati semi-finalist, and Lorenzo Musetti, one of the most consistent performers of this Summer, in another popcorn third round match. Zverev and Rune may play in the fourth round also, should they get there, which would also be an exceptionally intriguing match. It was very, very close in France at Roland Garros.
Meanwhile, some first round matches that catch my attention going from the top of the draw to the bottom: Mattia Belluci against Stan Wawrinka, if you want a veteran taking on a rising star who are both great talents and strikers of the ball, with top-tier backhands. Mensik vs Auger-Aliassime is a solid battle between Next Gen also. Right below that in Section 2 is Medvedev vs Lajovic, and though Lajovic has not been performing that well recently, he won his last two matches against Medvedev in straight sets, including on hard courts. Monfils vs Schwartzman in section 5 also stands out big time between two fan favorites, for a good reason. Both likely in the twilight of their career, Diego retiring in Buenos Aires next season. Rune vs Nakashima is another good one for sure, Brandon performing well recently in similar conditions. Shelton vs Thiem is one of the most eye-catching also, with this being Thiem’s final grand slam tournament. Thiem has been a monster at these tournaments in his peak, so it will be sad to see, but it’s great he gets this wildcard for a last opportunity to shine.
The projected quarterfinals are Sinner vs. Medvedev, Alcaraz vs. Hurkacz, Ruud vs. Zverev, and Rublev vs. Djokovic. Medvedev is 7-5 against Sinner, having won their last meeting at Wimbledon but of course Sinner absolutely held Medvedev’s number in the second half of last year and defeated Daniil in this year’s Australian Open final. Alcaraz is 3-0 vs Hurkacz, but over half of their sets have been tiebreaks, and Hurkacz had two near-upsets against Alcaraz in Canada and Cincinnati last year. Zverev is 3-2 over Ruud, but Ruud has won two of their last three, and Casper did not feel 100% at Roland Garros this year. That would be interesting, but Sascha would arguably be the favorite on this surface. Rublev is 1-5 vs Djokovic, and it’s his Impossible Matchup he cannot crack. He played a phenomenal set against Novak at Wimbledon and a fantastic match in Paris, but came away empty-handed. Novak has more gears than Andrey, and is a more complete player- calmer and more calculated in the moments that matter the most as well.
Finally, let me get to my predictions and thoughts on what we may see unfold.
I feel like the top quarter is incredibly difficult to predict. Daniil Medvedev is always a huge challenge at this tournament, and at the hard-court slams in general. On the two occasions so far where he has tried to defend finals points at the US Open, he has come out short however. Jannik will be incredibly motivated by revenge over Daniil and his loss to Daniil in the quarterfinal stage of Wimbledon. There is a reason that Jannik beat Daniil five times in a row in a span of mere months. Jannik’s rally tolerance being so vastly improved, particularly off his forehand wing, and his defensive game being so much better and allowing him to win the longer rallies has been huge. He is able to hit through Daniil’s defenses better than most, his unpredictable spot serving is alien compared to what it was when Daniil beat Jannik in their first six meetings. Not to mention Jannik’s better netplay and drop shots, and you see a lot of ways in which Daniil can struggle against the hard-hitting Italian star. For all of those reasons, I like Jannik to make it to the semi-finals, but I also am not discounting Daniil completely, especially after the masterclass he put on last year against the Spaniard wonderkid who’s taken the Channel Slam this year.
As for Carlos, I believe he has a relatively good draw. There are definitely some dangerous names like Jack Draper and Sebastian Korda, who could make for some great matches, but I think Alcaraz will feel confident with De Minaur and Hurkacz on the other side. Alcaraz is a monster in the best-of-five format, and he will favor himself in this format against these names. I favor Carlos to make it through, and I think he can shake off the Cincinnati match pretty well and find a better level. He’s been fantastic in New York the last three years, and the crowd’s warmed up to him here quickly. I expect him to do well.
I am not backing Ruud much right now, and I would bet on Zverev to make it to the semifinals (although Fritz is interesting to me, and maybe a Wimbledon repeat could be in the cards? On my best bet, I will back Zverev though).
I don’t see anyone at the bottom getting through Djokovic. Crazier things have happened, but he has held Rublev and Dimitrov’s numbers, and I don’t think Shelton can get him, even though many want to see that after the infamous situation last year. Not surprising picks from my end- I have Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Zverev. I definitely have Medvedev as a huge, huge possibility in Sinner’s section, but this would be my prediction.
In regards to semifinals, I have Carlos over Jannik in four sets, although not nearly as close as the all-timer they played a couple of years ago. I also choose Djokovic over Zverev in four sets. As for the final, a repeat of the Olympics and Wimbledon finals, I will take Alcaraz over Djokovic in four sets- relatively straightforward for Carlos in the end, even if not as much as at Wimbledon.
New York is set to be a very, very exciting Slam. Off the back of Djokovic winning the Olympics and completing his collection of the biggest trophies in the sport, three other younger guys look set to be huge challenges in New York as well- in Medvedev, Sinner, and Alcaraz. Many other players here also, and it will be exciting to see who comes away with the winning trophy here in Flushing Meadows.
