Mutua Madrid Open 2024 Draw Preview (ATP)

Written By Anthony Hirsch

The Mutua Madrid Masters is panning out to be a very interesting Masters 1000 event. It is the second Master’s 1000 event held on clay in the season, after the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters which occurred a couple weeks ago. It is always held in Madrid, Spain’s central capital- and since 2009 it is held in a stadium known as Caja Mágica- which in English translates to “The Magic Box.” In Monte-Carlo, it was Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud who fought out the final. Although these are two great Roland Garros finalists of the last half-decade and Tsitsipas had great success at that event before, these were not the names most were expecting to get to that final hurdle- with most focusing more on names such as Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic.

Carlos Alcaraz was unable to play in Monte Carlo due to a right arm injury- but although there are still big question marks as to where his level and physicality will be the 2-time defending champion will be back to play. He is the home crowd favorite, as is Rafael Nadal, who also has big concerns hanging over him, but is always exciting to watch compete. He will be back to play 16-year-old Darwin Blanch in the first round. Novak Djokovic has withdrawn, but there is still a great field entered to play this event.

Favorites

Jannik Sinner

The young Italian superstar has been in some remarkable form. He has won 25 of the 27 matches he has played this year, including of course the final of the Australian Open where he came fighting back from two sets down against Daniil Medvedev and picked up his maiden grand slam title. His two losses this year have come up against Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells a little bit over a month ago, as well as a loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas at Monte-Carlo a couple weeks back. Those are also two favorites at this event, and they went on to win those respective Masters tournaments. His couple of past performances here have not been up to his usual standard, with a second round and third round loss (last year he did not participate).

Despite this being the case, I see Jannik as a player who can adapt well to nearly all conditions, especially as he keeps adding to his game; for example, he successfully utilized the drop shot quite often last week. I do believe he can be quite a solid player on the clay with his newly improved shot tolerance, as well as how comfortably he moves and slides on the courts. He owns a solid 68.3% win rate on the clay, which likely will keep improving. I would say he is a player to not bet against with his current form and confidence. That said, he is still learning, and he is not impenetrable on this surface, especially against players who are very comfortable already playing on the gritty clay.

Jannik has Richard Gasquet or Lorenzo Sonego in the 2^nd round (he has a bye in the 1^st round). He has a decent draw of players he should favor himself against such as Jordan Thompson and Karen Khachanov. A bigger danger to Jannik in his quarter comes in the form of Casper Ruud. It would be unfair to not point to Grigor Dimitrov as well, but historically Grigor has not performed that well at this event (only Masters event where Grigor has not reached the SF stage). Casper in the meanwhile feels quite good in these conditions and is very confident, coming off the Monte-Carlo and Barcelona finals.

Carlos Alcaraz

The Spanish 20-year-old wonderkid has been a sight to behold at this event the last couple of years. He seems to move so well here, sliding on these courts like it’s his playground. The quicker speed of these clay courts doesn’t hurt him neither, nor does the high-altitude higher bounce that these courts can bring (can help his serve, which can hold a bit of kick to it also). His run in 2022 was arguably the run that seemed to confirm to many that this kid was truly something extraordinary, a generational talent. He became the first and only man to beat Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic back-to-back on clay courts. Last year was a bit tougher, including his opening match where he was down a set to Emil Ruusuvuori. But he fought through and comfortably finished the event.

He went through a period that many labelled a “struggle period,” and certainly it was if you consider the unreal standards Alcaraz has given to himself in his first few years playing on tour. It began arguably after the Cincinnati final, where Djokovic saved championship points to beat him in an utter thriller. After this, he lost to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals of the US Open- a few of those sets pretty one sided, although Medvedev surely was a big part of that, with one of his best serving days ever- and across the board he was performing at personally the best level I’ve ever seen him play. And it says a lot. This followed, however, by losses such as a three-set loss to Grigor Dimitrov in the Shanghai Masters, a loss to Roman Safiullin in the Paris Masters, Nicolas Jarry in Buenos Aires… These are all losses which Alcaraz would not be too pleased with.

A quarterfinal appearance (loss to Zverev) at the Australian Open is not overly shameful, but one of his biggest setbacks was an ankle injury at Rio, on just the second point of the match against Thiago Monteiro. He rebounded very well at Indian Wells, beating Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev along the way, playing smarter more patient tennis. Alcaraz will have Alexander Shevchenko in his first match, in the 2^nd round. Flashy talents like Lorenzo Musetti and Ugo Humbert lay in his draw, but Holger Rune is likely the biggest threat in his quarter. Despite his latest performance in Munich, Rune does not mind a clay court- he has shown that.

Casper Ruud

The Norwegian has a new kind of title to his name- an ATP 500 in Barcelona that surely will instill some confidence, but I believe it moreso confirms what has already been proven quite solidly: Casper Ruud is an elite player on clay courts. He has proven himself to be a top problem at times on the hard courts as well- but with ten titles on the clay, two back-to-back Roland Garros finals, and a recent Monte-Carlo final, where he beat Novak Djokovic on the way- he has shown himself to be a big threat on the dirt. His high RPM forehands, smart patient game building out points, and the time he has to run around his backhand all help this to be the skillful Norwegian’s most successful surface. He was struggling a lot last year, rarely finding ways to win back-to-back matches in tournaments, with the forehand being a bit more erratic and his mental game withering a bit too much in the tight moments. The solid anticipation skills and high IQ game he was known for was not clicking. But this year he has won over 80% of his matches, already finding a place in four different finals- two on hard court, two on the clay.

He first lost finals in Acapulco and Los Cabos to Jordan Thompson and Alex De Minaur, but last week in Barcelona he got his revenge on Tsitsipas from the final they played the week prior in Monte-Carlo. He is coming in, playing his best and smartest tennis- his confidence at a high. He is playing as aggressive as ever, going to the open court, even if he is hitting into a dangerous weapon, such as the Tsitsipas forehand because that is the faith he’s found in his own shots. That backhand is also a bigger threat than ever, with his backhand down the line becoming a real threat. He will not be fun at all for anybody to play, given he is not tired from these big last couple of weeks. The same could be said for the next favorite as well. Casper has the winner of Zhang Zhizhen and Miomir Kecmanovic next. Dimitrov, Khachanov, Jarry are potential threats in his quarter, but it’s the big and now monstrous name of Jannik Sinner that is really staring him down here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas may have lost the final in Barcelona, but I believe he will still be running on more confidence than he’s had since those early weeks in 2023, when he was flying high with his forehand getting to the final of the Australian Open on the hot and humid hard courts in Melbourne. Since that run however, Stefanos has struggled a bit more than he is accustomed to. He did not make a single final of a Big event for the rest of 2023, and he was losing fairly comfortably in some of his best events such as to Taylor Fritz at Monte-Carlo 6-2 6-4 and to Carlos Alcaraz in comfortable straight sets at Roland Garros last year. More recently, he got to the semifinal of Paris last year, beating players like Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov on the way. But since that point, he once again struggled to go on many deep runs.

He lost to a top-performing and top-level Taylor Fritz in the Australian Open Round of 16, unable to defend his finals run. He had, arguably, four rather disappointing successive losses before his Monte-Carlo run: losing to Casper Ruud in Los Cabos, to Alex De Minaur in Acapulco and two different 6-2 6-4 losses in the Sunshine Double (to Lehecka and Shapovolov, respectively). However, in Monte-Carlo he had a stellar run, beating fantastic clay courter Tomás Martín Etcheverry 6-1 6-0, then beating Khachanov, Zverev, Sinner, and Ruud in succession to lift the title. In the next week in the Barcelona ATP 500 event, he managed through some long and tough three-setters before making the final again, so we will see where his legs are at after a grueling couple of weeks, but he is surely a confident contender on clay at the moment. Tsitsipas will play against the winner of Dusan Lajovic and Brazilian qualifier Thiago Monteiro in his 2^nd round match in Madrid. Lajovic would be a rematch of his three-set tussle against the Serb in Barcelona. Alex De Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, and Ben Shelton are likely some of the biggest threats in the Greek’s quarter of the draw.

Underdogs

Rafael Nadal

What more is there to say about Nadal on his beloved clay courts? Rafa is currently ranked at #512 in the ATP rankings and has played just two competitive clay court matches in the last 22 months. Yet he is the greatest player we have ever seen play on this gritty, tough surface. And I’d say to not kid yourself and think that it is even a particularly close competition either. That said, of the Big clay court events this was his least successful. Nadal was able to win it, when the event has been held as a clay Masters event, “only” a total of four times. Rafa was never favored as much on a faster court, and yet it is still a clay court all the same. Rafa comes into the event with several injury concerns, notably the ab injury, which has been holding him back- quite noticeably on the serve. Time will tell to see how he can show up here. But if Rafael Nadal is able to step even one foot on a clay court with a racquet on his hand, I dare you to be the one to count him out. He is always a factor when he steps onto a tennis court. The Spanish gladiator could possibly say a final goodbye to his home crowds here, in what could end up being an incredibly emotional event. His first opponent is 16-year-old American Darwin Blanch, who is incredibly new to the tour- in what will be an incredible battle of generations. He could also potentially have players such as Alex De Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Daniil Medvedev waiting for him in his quarter if he is able to make it past his first round match.

Dusan Lajovic

This is a name you may not be used to seeing so much when discussing big underdogs, but this is a guy who can have some big wins and runs on the clay. We saw this as recently as last week in Barcelona. He played quite a high level as he took out Ugo Humbert, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Arthur Fils to reach the semi-finals in Barcelona before losing to Tsitsipas in a competitive three-set match. He potentially could have another go at playing Stefanos if he could get through qualifier Thiago Monteiro in the first round, as I had previously mentioned when I discussed Tsitsipas and his potential matchups in the draw. Dusan is somebody who has reached the final of a Masters 1000 event on clay before, and outside of Tsitsipas I believe it is a quarter in the draw where a lot of guys can take their opportunities to go on a run. That potentially could be a big match for 33 year-old Lajovic and what this tournament could pan out to be for him.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Jan-Lennard is of course last year’s Mutua Madrid Masters finalist. He had an epic all-time tournament, reaching the final from a lucky loser position (in fact, he beat Aslan Karatsev in the semifinalist as aforementioned, and Aslan was the player who beat Struff initially in qualifying!). Struff just picked up his first ever ATP title in Munich at the Bavarian International on the precipice of turning 34 years old this week. On the way he had one of the most shellshocking wins we’ve seen in the sport in the last year, with a 44-minute win over the two-time defending champ Rune, who had previously never lost a single match at that event and had compiled a tasty 10-match win streak there. Struff also beat Felix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz, and last year’s finalist Botic Van de Zandschulp en route to the title. A very impressive run from the ever-aggressive, often net-rushing Struff. We will see how he is able to back up last year’s final, but he is running on confidence. He will have Spaniard Jaume Munar in the 2^nd round (his first match as the 23^rd seed in the event). Carlos Alcaraz awaits in his quarter, as do Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune potentially in the quarterfinals should he make it to that point in the event.